Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 15.347208 17.497070 20.008534 23.203448 27.226133 32.218360 39.042685
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 12.728455 15.295575 18.556019 23.133024 29.629842 38.944615 54.240500
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 11.328392 14.103257 17.836795 23.467409 32.239228 46.439889 74.138655
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 10.044697 12.799059 16.650766 22.756156 32.935174 51.045770 91.981823
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 9.234101 12.010128 16.028605 22.697771 34.564588 57.802184 119.706248
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 8.366608 11.028811 14.971558 21.721708 34.292108 60.703057 140.976795
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 7.571620 10.073405 13.837702 20.425081 33.101719 61.175132 156.022961
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 6.952188 9.326635 12.951043 19.422643 32.265306 62.188722 174.912978
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 7.124721 9.790375 14.033412 22.079529 39.643649 88.047294 365.484531
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 6.986516 9.751223 14.274967 23.210919 44.086864 109.627214 680.113798
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 6.524627 9.155653 13.502134 22.212782 43.070153 111.904013 837.838741
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 6.284327 8.903707 13.306240 22.364302 45.070549 127.628037 1490.690070
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 5.962843 8.512888 12.858260 21.990960 45.770854 139.873450 2747.814861
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 5.710534 8.221289 12.565287 21.915417 47.346667 158.865832 8081.069745
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 5.530830 8.038684 12.453749 22.223522 50.215807 190.174179 315388.649863
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 5.251581 7.666962 11.954247 21.567490 49.820596 201.015556 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 5.065705 7.445895 11.723887 21.513602 51.457211 230.772259 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 4.800372 7.071437 11.169962 20.611922 49.879070 232.155166 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 4.519914 6.658569 10.518432 19.411696 46.984996 218.840664 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 4.285949 6.319028 9.993873 18.481846 44.929398 212.234448 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 4.420407 6.638531 10.788317 20.942653 56.609592 394.740292 NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 4.397317 6.671899 11.010535 21.987035 63.473041 596.811761 NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 4.200710 6.377115 10.532836 21.065765 61.038790 584.647899 NaN